112
13k
2025
83%
chance

Apple Vision Pro Vibe check

Resolution:

Yes, it is a Flop:

If the Apple VIsion Pro is viewed as a gimmick device, seen with little to no cultural impact or general public disinterest.

No, it is not a flop:

If the cultural consensus around the Apple Vision Pro is positive (think of the Las Vegas Sphere)

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I've seen lots of memes, references, and comedy about how often people return the Apple Vision Pro. I don't think I've ever seen anything positive about it. I'm sure some people really like it, but the public narrative is clearly pretty negative about it.

bought Ṁ500 YES from 72% to 81%

Isn’t it tine to resolve this to aYES?

@MartyE Narratives evolve over time, seems to me this question has an implicit "... on the resolution date."

LuEEboughtṀ49NO

Whoever this is (a bot or just someone using the API?) thanks for providing a continued source of cheap YES shares

I'd really like to see more context on the resolution criteria here. It's most likely that the general consensus will be somewhere in the middle (i.e. between the Las Vegas Sphere and relatively little public interest).

It's hard to know how to bet on such a binary question if the outcome, in all likelihood, is not binary?

Also I want to mention that the iPhone is generally considered not a flop (very strongly so, as it's maybe the most successful consumer product… ever). But in January 2008 this was not the vibe!

In the beginning of 2008 there was a strong case to make for “well this wasn't Las Vegas Sphere-level impactful“ if we had that comparison back then. The App Store didn't exist yet, only Apple superfans who spent an inordinate amount of money wanted to buy one, etc.

I think this makes it very hard to bet on this market even if I'm convinced the Vision Pro is not going to be a flop?

Ready to see the market start to correct here. The AVP has been out for 2 weeks (2/2/24) and today is the return deadline. The Verge and other outlets have begun reporting those tech enthusiasts that purchased have begun returning the device (see TikTok) hardly something we see with a device that is not a flop. Users cite discomfort and lack of use cases for the $3.5K device.

Business Insider TECH

The Vision Pro Review: I'm running out of reasons to wear Apple's futuristic headset after a week

WSJ I’m an Apple Early Adopter, and the Vision Pro Isn’t Right for Me—Yet

Yahoo Apple Vision Pro users begin returning headset, blaming headaches and limited uses

Coverage has been largely underwhelming from mainstream media, most not able to get over the device's appearance and discomfort. It has not found a niche or target market. Even amongst the tech enthusiasts, the general consensus has been: this is an amazing preview for the future of AR/Vr , but this is a V1 device with little practical use today. See this long blog post from Tim Urban (Wait But Why) that comes to the conclusion that the device is very cool but yet very underwhelming. https://waitbutwhy.com/2024/02/vision-pro.html

It's that "its cool But" and overall underwhelming connotation that defines a flop

@SimranRahman

"We've had a few in a few days, not outside the normal range for new stuff across the entire region," one senior Apple Retail employee that we've been talking to for over a decade who is not authorized to speak on behalf of the company told me on Friday morning. "Maybe like not-pro iPhone levels, proportionately, two weeks after release?"

https://appleinsider.com/articles/24/02/16/so-far-the-early-return-rate-on-apple-vision-pro-is-pretty-low

@SimranRahman Buying a device and then returning it does not make it a gimmick. The intended audience for the device is small. It is still in it's infancy.

The first iPhone left me feeling the same combination of blown away and bored.

- Tim Urban

@Kire_ I don't disagree with the notion that the device in its V3+ could have sticking power. Yes it's v1, I am aware it's in its infancy. However, AVP 2024,the device the market received, is without a doubt seen as a gimmick with little practical use. Apple new product line releases are typically some of the most hyped events in the tech world —but since the 2.5 weeks have passed, this product has barely made a dent culturally. The news cycle has already moved on about the product itself and has moved onto deciding how much of a flop it is (the reason we are debating return rates here) and all pieces from mainstream media (not Apple Insider) had a somewhat negative perception which is characteristic of flops.

How will this be determined?

predicts YES

@AndyZiber Please provide resolution criteria.

predicts YES

Does YES track the title or the description?