Background: As of the latest publicly available Form 990 for MIRI, they employed a paid preparer (Harris & CO PLLC) for their nonprofit tax submission. This question probes whether AI capabilities will have advanced significantly by 2031, making the use of paid professionals for tasks like tax form preparation obsolete.
https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/582565917
Rationale: The reason this question may be interesting is because I'd expect:
MIRI to be particularly knowledgeable about AI capabilities and the cutting edge of what can be automated.
MIRI has a strong interest in pursuing their mission, thereby using money efficiently and not wasting money on a CPA if it is not necessary.
If this answer resolves YES, I expect to be annoyed by explanations such as "MIRI is particularly cautious with their image/money", because all nonprofits of a similar size are, but some people might still point to this as an explanation for why it has not happened by 2030.
Resolution:
The question will resolve once the 2030 Form 990 (or its subsequent equivalent) is made public, which is expected to be by 2036 by the latest. However, the question can be resolved earlier if credible information is released confirming whether or not a CPA was employed for the 2030 tax year.
If a different form replaces Form 990, then that will be considered instead.
Non-Applicable Resolutions:
This question will be marked as N/A if:
MIRI ceases to exist or is no longer a charitable nonprofit requiring public disclosure of this kind of information.
The tax form is not available online due to unforeseen circumstances. However, this excludes rapid AI development causing major societal shifts, which would lead to a "NO" resolution. That is because this question aims to serve as a proxy for the progression of AI capabilities, so any edge cases due to AI will be resolved based on this overarching goal, to the best of my judgment.
If the goal is AI progress, why not directly phrase the question around AI? As worded, this seems to resolve YES if e.g. MIRI employs a specialist company that internally uses AI while it seems to resolve NO if e.g. the tax
/accounting rules for nonprofits are simplified enough that a non-professional can safely handle them for MIRI...
@MartinModrak Yes good point those are edge cases. But how would you recommend handling them? It's difficult to tell the extent to which a specialist company might be using AI. Whereas it is extremely simple to tell if MIRI is using a specialist company on its Form 990 or not. If AI advances rapidly enough, then adequate AIs should be available to MIRI as well, not just the specialist company.
It also seems quite unlikely to me that accounting rules will be significantly simplified in the next 7 years.