Will the Moscow stock market mostly re-open by the end of May 2022?
#Economics
16
13
Ṁ103
resolved May 30
Resolved
NO
Per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-keeps-stock-trading-closed-in-nation-s-longest-shutdown?sref=XTCfYPwP - > The Russian stock market will be closed to trading until at least next Wednesday, marking a record in the country’s modern history, in a continuing bid to stave off the impact of global sanctions for domestic investors. > > The Moscow Exchange said on Friday that trading across all markets will be shut March 5, 7 and 8. Since the Moscow Exchange’s equity trading was last open a week ago, Russian stocks listed in London erased more than 90% of their value before getting suspended, global index providers announced plans to remove the nation’s shares from their indexes and European companies with business exposure to the country lost more than $100 billion in market value. > > ... > > While a rare occasion, countries have halted stock trading in the past due to unusual circumstances. > > The New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange and other bourses were shut in 2001 after the 9/11 attack. Trading in U.S. shares resumed after being closed for four trading days, with the S&P 500 slumping about 5%. > > Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime. The shutdown followed a drop of 16% in the nation’s equities in just two days. And when the index reopened, the selloff resumed and the index ended up 49% down for that year. Related market with "End of March" deadline: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly Mar 26, 10:08am: re: resolution criteria and definitions of "mostly open", see comments on https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly
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bought Ṁ20 of NO
In the current state stock market is open in the similar way as Russia is peacekeeping Ukraine, and I expect it to remain this way.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
some recent articles from https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AQlzTJb_0nk/ksenia-galouchko 3/28: > Russian stocks retreated on Monday, erasing gains from last week as trading was expanded to all Moscow shares, while government measures to prevent a deeper selloff remain in place. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-28/russian-stocks-dip-as-limited-trading-expanded-to-all-shares 3/30: > Russian equities advanced as the nation partly lifted the short-selling ban on local stocks on Thursday, removing one of the measures that helped limit the declines in the market after a record long shutdown. > ... > Professional market participants, including brokers and banks, are now able to short some of the biggest Russian equities, while the clients of brokers, including retail investors, will continue to be restricted from short sales, the Moscow Exchange said. > ... > The Bank of Russia also said equities trading hours will be extended from a shortened four-hour session to the regular schedule of 9:50 a.m. to 6:50 p.m. Moscow time, according to a website statement. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/russia-to-lift-short-selling-ban-on-stocks-expand-trading-hours It looks like we're most of the way there, and the final piece is allowing foreigners making transactions. Let me know if anyone thinks of any other factors/criteria that should be considered. --- cross-posting from https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly - Re: resolution criteria & defining "mostly open": * artificially propping up the shares won't be counted against the market being considered open * limits on foreigners making transactions are relevant * limits on foreigners ultimately transferring money from market sales out of RU won't be counted against * limits on certain shares from being traded are relevant * limits on derivatives are relevant
bought Ṁ1 of NO
"❗️Russia’s stock market will be closed for the whole of next week, Central Bank announces. That’s until at least March 21. Shares last traded on Feb. 25." https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1502681986007281664?s=20

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