Will o1 score ≥60% on the REBUS benchmark?
5
1kṀ1905
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
YES

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ510
2Ṁ101
3Ṁ83

People are also trading

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
21% chance
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
61% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
75% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
77% chance
Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025?
40% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
68% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
39% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
60% chance
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
14% chance
Sort by:

I'll probably try running this this week if I can automate the web interaction (unless the API comes out before then)

Referring, of course, to the famous https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.05604

bought Ṁ100 YES

For reference, the release version of 4o scored 42%, and the human baseline is 83%.

@derikk after looking at the examples and not getting any correct and then seeing 83% as the human baseline I felt really bad till I read that humans were allowed to Google and use reverse image search.

People are also trading

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
21% chance
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
61% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
75% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
77% chance
Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025?
40% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
68% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
39% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
60% chance
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
14% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules