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Gonna do a bit of math to make sure these explanations line up with observed profits, and resolve yes if they do

I'm confused about exactly the same thing (same market in my case). I believe my August trading in that market has been profitable.

It seems like some of your activity on that market was from before this season started, so while the profits from then count towards your overall profit on that market, they don’t count towards profits for this season.

@oh I see, so the start of the league breaks up the buy/sell of the shares. But even then, where does the M$-1000 come from? If I loaded up on 3,896 NO shares before the start of the league, and sold them at a slight profit right after the league started for a tiny profit, how does this come out to a huge loss?

Actually, I think that does count bc it's on August 1st. The problem is that you sold NO at 33%, and league points consider that the same as buying YES at 33%.

@Joshua no way, so selling NO shares from a previous month gets counted (in the league) as buying YES shares in the current month? So as soon as the September league starts, can I just sell all of my really bad investments to pump my standing? Seems like a weird system!

I believe anything on August 1st counts for the current season? That part does confuse me a little.

But yeah selling your bad investments could be better than keeping them, if the market moves in a direction that agrees with you after. My understanding is that Leagues considers whether it would have been better to not sell a position and penalizes someone when they sold at a suboptimal time.

@AndrewG That's how it works, yeah, selling NO is counted the same as buying YES. If sells were ignored, then we'd be able to sell our old investments and buy them back immediately for league profit in the current month. It's always a good idea to sell your bad investments btw :D

@Joshua Actions on the first day of the month count for both seasons to discourage season end manipulations.