Sorta have no idea how interviews translate to offers, so would be nice to get a probability estimate. I mainly applied to AI safety-related CS PhD programs.

Completed interviews/offers/rejections

1/12: 1, 0, 0 [0%]

1/16: 2, 0, 0 [0%]

1/22: 3, 0, 0 [0%]

1/25: 4, 0, 0 [0%]

1/29: 5, 1, 0 (e.g., 2 new interviews and 1 previous interview turned into an offer) [17%]

1/31: 6, 1, 0 [14%]

2/1: 7, 1, 0 [13%]
2/5: 8, 1, 0 [11%]

2/6: 6, 3, 0 [33%]

2/16: 5, 4, 0 [44%]

2/27: 4, 5, 0 [56%]

3/5: 3, 5, 1 [56%]