Will Donald Trump's polling average fall below 45% during the primaries?
29
570Ṁ32k
resolved Mar 20
Resolved
NO

Resolves according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/.

Market resolves NO once Donald Trump becomes the nominee.

Resolves YES if at any point (after market creation) before then, his 538 polling average drops below 45.0%, or he drops out of the race/dies.

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Republican Party
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Just saw the peace offering. Thanks!

He becomes the nominee at the convention. I didn't expect this to resolve before then.

@JJL yeah, I guess you're right, but the fact that the average based on which I'd resolve is no longer updating made it seem silly to wait until then

@AndrewG Understood. I guess it’s a structural problem with the resolution that at least the two of us didn’t foresee.

bought Ṁ500 NO

I think this can resolve NO.

Trump has enough delegates to win the nomination. The linked page on 538 now says at the top: "Our polling average for this race is final and no longer updating."

This already happened? Look at March 31st 2023, or Feb 18th, etc.

@MatthewGrayc2b2 well, after market creation, that is.

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