Will Donald Trump's polling average fall below 45% during the primaries?
28
97
Ṁ1.4KṀ570
2024
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ34 +241.3%
New probability
30% +1.2%
Resolves according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/.
Market resolves NO once Donald Trump becomes the nominee.
Resolves YES if at any point (after market creation) before then, his 538 polling average drops below 45.0%, or he drops out of the race/dies.
Get Ṁ500 play money
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