Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).

NASA is officially targeting early 2028 for launch.

Artemis II (crewed lunar flyby) successfully flew April 1–11, 2026.

Artemis III (HLS test in Earth orbit) is targeted for mid-2027 and must fly first.

Both HLS landers (Starship HLS, Blue Moon) still need to complete human-rating certification.

Resolves YES if the Artemis IV SLS/Orion stack lifts off from the pad (T-0, engine ignition and liftoff) on or before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2028, regardless of mission success afterward. A scrubbed attempt does not count; a launch that fails after liftoff does count as YES.

Resolves NO if no Artemis IV launch attempt has lifted off by that deadline, or if the mission is cancelled/renumbered such that there is no "Artemis IV" launch.