Will Russia attack any ship going to or from Ukraine by September 1st? [see description]
65
492
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resolved Sep 3
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if such an attack is mentioned in NATO, UN or by Russian officials. Resolves NO if there is no mention of such attack by the close date.

UPD 1: military vessels such as https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-forces-destroyed-us-made-military-vessel-near-snake-island-2023-08-22/ are too small and don't qualify.

UPD 2: ships going between ports of Ukraine do count.
UPD 3: ferries on inland waterways don't count; the ship should be able to travel by sea.

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predicted YES

I'll probably have to review whether there were any news which I haven't seen.

bought Ṁ127 of YES

@SorinTanaseNicola unclear if a speedboat counts as a ship

predicted NO

@SebastianWorms @SorinTanaseNicola Also the ship/boat was highly likely sailing within Ukraine not "to" or "from" Ukraine.

predicted YES

@MartinModrak What do you mean? I would think that going from Ukraine to Snake Island count a sailing from Ukraine

predicted YES

@SebastianWorms Snake Island is Ukraine and also inside their mainland territorial waters. However, it is not clear that the incident happened inside Ukrainian territorial waters. And why would a Ukrainian vessel going to Snake Island find itself east of the island, closer to Russian assets?

predicted YES

@SorinTanaseNicola Going to wait for @AnT to chime in, but I'd say it counts as sailing both "from" and "to" Ukraine and would satisfy the creteria if we classify it as a ship

predicted NO

@SebastianWorms My impression is that both the spirit and the wording indicate the question is about international shipping (hence the "from" and "to"). As far as everybody except Russia is concerned, even a landing attempt at Crimea would be within Ukraine, not international. However, the market creator is the one to decide here...

predicted YES

@MartinModrak Funny, to me it sounds the opposite. Eg, imagine the question was about the US rather than Ukraine I feel a ship going to Hawai would definitely count.

predicted YES

@SorinTanaseNicola thank you! This vessel seems too small to qualify as a ship, though.

If it was bigger, the market would resolve YES.

predicted YES

@AnT Thanks for the explanation, could I suggest you adjust the description? Probably make sens to also explicitly include or exclude inland waterway in case a ferry on the dnipro get struck