I've heard that Manifold considers sending out additional mana to those who purchased some during 2024 and have not donated much. Will they do so by market close?
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I’m a bit surprised this was so low? IIUC, They’ve written the script to do this, and the agenda says they’re gonna run it. Do people think it’ll be delayed, or am I missing some reason their plans won’t satisfy this question? (Which already mentions it’s just for 2024, ignores some donations, etc)
@Ziddletwix Even if they compensate people for what they bought by giving them some extra, I wouldn't think they would give them the full 10x of what they purchased
@PlasmaBallin Ah got it. well for symmetric information, the script seems pretty clear it's the full 9x (although i'm just reading from the code, no confirmation of what the final decision will be)
@Ziddletwix Damn. If it answers part of your questions, I placed my NO bets without such an information, and wouldn't have otherwise. My reasoning wasn't based on calibration. I just expect my mana to be woth less in world where this resolves YES. (Basically I made it to Masters without ever buying Mana, but I'm pretty sure I'm gonna demote, and the conditions making this market resolve YES would increase the extent to which I'm a sardine in a whale fight).
@PlasmaBallin yes.
Below 5x the market will certainly resolve NO, between 5x-9x I'll consider opening a poll.