Will there be an Chinese/Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese American Republican Nominee before 2060?
Will there be an Chinese/Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese American Republican Nominee before 2060?
7
155Ṁ1382060
52%
chance
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If deciding whether the nominee is considered Chinese/Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese American is controversial, I will conduct a poll and resort to poll result
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... There are probably thousands of these? For example this page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberly_Yee lists six times this woman was a Republican nominee
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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