Will Manifold Reach 11000 Monthly Active Users in 2023?

Ammon Lam

783

Ṁ38K

Ṁ1.3K

Jan 1

22%

chance

ALL

Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats

Resolves "YES" if Manifold reaches 11000 monthly active users at any point in 2023

Resolves "NO" otherwise
Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public

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As an aside, https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-manifold-reach-10000-monthly-a-e77185eae959?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Will Manifold reach 10,000 Monthly Active Users by the end of 2023?

80% chance. It's already very close: https://manifold.markets/stats

Justin Hanbought Ṁ25 of NO

I predict that the number of users will not exceed 11,000 by the end of 2023. Taking the data from manifold markets regarding their active user base, I created this linear regression from April 30th, 2023 to October 12th, 2023. Here we have a high correlation of 0.70 between time and active users Thus, by extrapolating to near the end of 2023, we see that we do not break 11k. Furthermore, the two outliers has skewed the regression making it closer than it may actually be.