Manifold is currently still accessible in China. But with the number of China controversial markets like these, will it be blocked in China soon?
https://manifold.markets/Xiklon/is-xi-jinping-mentally-retarded
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s
https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-china-be-a-democracy-in-2050

Resolves to Yes if Manifold is inaccessible in China without VPN
Use this website to check if manifold is blocked in China
https://www.comparitech.com/privacy-security-tools/blockedinchina/
If this website is proved to be inaccurate, I will look for more accurate testing of whether Manifold is inaccessible in China without VPN.