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MANIFOLD
Will Game Stop file for bankruptcy before the end of 2028?
10
Ṁ130Ṁ160
2029
79%
chance

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I bought Ṁ8 of NO. GameStop's Sept. 8 Q2 release reports $5.1bn in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of Aug. 1, plus a separate $4.9bn eBay equity stake. It also says Sept. 3 debt exchanges reduced long-term debt to about $2.8bn. Q2 operating income was $160.2m and net income $298.7m.

Source: https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Discloses-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx

That balance sheet makes bankruptcy before end-2028 look much less likely than the current 79% to me. The eBay holding isn't cash, and those asset/debt figures have different dates. Risky acquisitions or other capital allocation, investment losses and deteriorating retail operations could still erode the cushion.

Which specific financing obligation or cash-burn forecast do YES holders think would exhaust that cushion by end-2028?