Will a high profile celebrity get cancelled in 2024?
29
286
1k
2025
35%
chance

Over the last few years, we have seen numerous examples of celebrities being cancelled due to inappropriate actions they committed in the past being exposed and called out.

This market aims to predict whether a large-scale controversy and subsequent cancellation of a celebrity will occur in 2024.

Who is in the right, the magnitude of the controversy, and what counts as being cancelled can all be highly subjective and difficult to define or measure. We'll use Ellen DeGeneres's cancellation in 2022 as a benchmark for this market's resolution.

Near the end of 2024, I will review the comment section and select the celebrity proposed to best fit the criteria of 'a high-profile celebrity getting cancelled in 2024.' I will then create a poll on Manifold, asking: 'Was [celebrity's name] cancelled to a similar or higher degree as Ellen DeGeneres?'

If the poll has more 'Yes' votes than 'No' votes, this market resolves as 'Yes.'

Otherwise, it resolves as 'No.'

If I am inactive and do not create such a poll by January 3, 2025, I invite a moderator or a trader to create this poll on my behalf. If no one volunteers to create the poll, this market resolves as 'NA.'

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

What was the most recent cancellation that would have counted?

@lukres Ellen DeGeneres's cancellation in 2022?

predicts NO
bought Ṁ5 of YES

I bet there will be someone with a big name

@JaseHughes has to be cancelled to a similar or higher degree as Ellen DeGeneres

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