@barak is working on a few different start ups, including the American Politics Company, the agency, Billy (meetbilly.co), coworking space in Manhattan (some of these might be the same company, you should check with Barak)
Read about American Politics Company here:
Pre-seed pitch: American Politics Company (notion.site)
Will any company of Barak raise 200k before the end of 2024?
Resolve Yes if there are credible evidence that Barak has raised 200k for any of his companies before the end of 2024 (evidence can be posted by Barak himself or others)
Edit:
Only legitimately raising at least $200,000 in funding from one or multiple external investors (excluding Barak himself) will result in this market resolving as "Yes". Temporarily manipulating the business account balance through transfers does not qualify. Additionally, having a third party pretend to invest $200,000 into the company, without the intention of actually utilizing the funds as if they were raised, does not count.
The term 'Any company of Barak' includes only those companies in which Barak has an ownership stake exceeding 50%. (but would also include any of these companies: American Politics Company, the agency, Billy (meetbilly.co), coworking space in Manhattan). Say Barak has acquired a 10% stake in a company and that company has raised 200k, such event will not make this market resolve Yes.
Market for higher funding goal and longer horizon (end of 2025):
1,000
3.00@traders Like this comment if you think Barack investing $200k in his own company SHOULD NOT result in this market resolving as "Yes."
@AmmonLam Ugh, I don't think I ever held a position in this market, so idk if that makes my vote more or less valid, but I think this is pretty complicated. Is the question framed as "Will a company owned by @barak have 200k in their bank account" or as "Will @barak be successful in gaining in the social signal of outsiders committing 200k for some non-majority position in a company he owns?" I think the former resolves "Yes" and the latter "No."
I think "raise" typically would indicate outside investors--I have personally put money into companies I'm involved in and never announced a "raise" and wouldn't call it that to outsiders. I think @barak betting on this market complicates things, as it's trivial to transfer 200k to a sole proprietorship and call this market resolved. You could even write a 200k line of credit to yourself without money changing hands at all.
I vote "No."
@traders
Like this comment if you think Barack investing $200k in his own company SHOULD result in this market resolving as "Yes."
@AmmonLam not the point of the question really lol - it's closed for trading so it shouldn't show up anywhere at all for now? and you said you're going to reopen it? I'm just wondering what the motivation is for reopening a market like this to begin with that's all.
@shankypanky I am going to reopened as soon as Barak and I confirm the updated resolution criteria.
What is your rationale behind this market should be closed/ NAed?
@traders I just noticed that Austin has opened this market again. I have halted trading for now. Will reopen trading as soon as I confirm with Barak on the updated resolution criteria with the ambiguity removed.
Speaking as a trader on a par with others, I view myself committing $200k to the c corp as validly counting as investment into the company, that's how I traded, but if people want to exclude personal investment that's ok with me
@barak I applaud your maturity in actually owning up to your mistakes, and my confidence in your ability to actually accomplish stuff is thus significantly boosted, so my credence on this and similar markets if and when they reopen has roughly doubled
I respect Austin and Manifold staff's decision to at least temporarily close this market. Personally I hope this market can get reopened in a few days after some cool down. If the market get reopened, I would first edit the description to an unambiguous resolution criteria that Barak and I agreed.
Barak also asked that I share this message from him:
Anyone can find thetheagency.com if they see it by example
I'll also that the chance to advertise other good, non controversial markets on predicting the success of start up here: