Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will Magnus Carlsen retire from competitive chess?
16
Ṁ415Ṁ1.5k
Jan 21
1.0%
2025
4%
2026
11%
2027
15%
2028
15%
2029
13%
2030
41%Other

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
96% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen compete in a Candidate's tournament before 2029?
15% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
89% chance
What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players?
Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?
11% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2029?
41% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2027?
66% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2028?
49% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?
9% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?
56% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ206 NO

@mods Creator has been inactive for a week and hasn't responded to pings, can you please resolve 2025 NO?

@Velaris it's not possible to prematurely resolve answers for this type of market, where all answers add up to a 100%. It's only possible for markets with independent answers.

@Agh My apologies for disturbing you for nothing.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@AmmonLam 2025 can resolve no, he has not retired.

bought Ṁ1 YES

With his current feud with FIDE, if he doesn't play anymore FIDE tourneys and just plays freestyle chess and maybe chess .com would that be sufficient to resolve to 2025?

People are also trading

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
96% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen compete in a Candidate's tournament before 2029?
15% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
89% chance
What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players?
Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?
11% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2029?
41% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2027?
66% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2028?
49% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?
9% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?
56% chance