Trolley Problem Classic | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)Whale Watching Self-resolving

Trolley Problem Classic

60%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Buy "Yes" if you think one should pull the switch
Buy "No" if you think one should not pull the switch

Market resolves to probability at closing

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Adrià Garriga-Alonso

When does the market close?

Adrià Garriga-Alonso

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso ah dumb question, it's Dec 31 (2023)

Jotto 999bought Ṁ20 of YES

Let's go guys, save 4 people

amcmaster bought Ṁ10 YES at 60%

Oskar bought Ṁ20 YES at 60%

Oskar bought Ṁ10 YES at 60%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ60 YES from 59% to 60%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 58%

Jannik created limit order for Ṁ70 NO at 75%

Jannik created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 75%

Jannik sold Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 59%

Jannik filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 YES at 60%

Maximilian G sold Ṁ17 YES from 60% to 59%

Sophia bought Ṁ20 YES at 60%

prigoryan bought Ṁ10 YES at 60%

DesTiny bought Ṁ29 YES from 59% to 60%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 59% (cancelled)

Jannik sold Ṁ84 NO from 56% to 60%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 56% (cancelled)

Seamus Bronski bought Ṁ20 NO from 57% to 55%

Seamus Bronski bought Ṁ25 NO from 59% to 57%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 50%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 45%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 40%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 35%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 30%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 25%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 20%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 15%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 10%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 5%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 1.0%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 98%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 99.0%

Jotto 999 sold Ṁ17 YES from 60% to 59%

Victor Levoso bought Ṁ10 YES at 60%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 61%

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ298/Ṁ400 NO at 60%

Isaac King created limit order for Ṁ400 YES at 40%

Jotto 999 bought Ṁ20 YES from 69% to 70%

SGQ bought Ṁ10 YES at 69%

Roko Čemeljić bought Ṁ60 YES from 66% to 69%

Strigoides bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 66%

bobzieh bought Ṁ40 YES from 63% to 65%

Jannik bought Ṁ20 NO from 65% to 63%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 65% (cancelled)

Jannik bought Ṁ30 NO from 68% to 64%

Jannik bought Ṁ20 NO from 70% to 68%

Hudson bought Ṁ10 YES from 69% to 70%

Weaver bought Ṁ10 YES at 69%

Maximilian G filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 69%

Maximilian G created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 90%