This market has roughly a 30% chance of resolving on any given day. Resolution depends on the following three factors:
The market price at 9:00 PM ET on the day prior to resolution
The calendar day of the month (odd or even)
The result of the next day’s Pick 3 (Midday) draw
The market resolves if the first digit of the next day’s Pick 3 Midday Winning Numbers is 0, 1, or 2.
Examples
Example 1:
If the Pick 3 Midday Winning Numbers on 11/03/2025 start with 0, then the market resolves based on 11/02/2025.
Suppose the market price at 9:00 PM ET on 11/02/2025 is 50%.
Because November 2 is an even day of the month, the market resolves to:
50% − 10% = 40%
Example 2:
If the Pick 3 Midday Winning Numbers on 11/04/2025 start with 0, then the market resolves based on 11/03/2025.
Suppose the market price at 9:00 PM ET on 11/03/2025 is 70%.
Because November 3 is an odd day of the month, the market resolves to:
70% + 10% = 80%
See this link for the latest Pick 3's Midday Winning Numbers
https://nylottery.ny.gov/all-winning-numbers?
Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the calculated resolution probability is >100%, the market will resolve to YES. If the calculated resolution probability is <0%, the market will resolve to NO.
1,000