MANIFOLD
My kid chooses her favorite toy ($25 budget)
22
Ṁ2.1kṀ3.5k
resolved Jan 19
100%12%
5%
5%
Paint Spin Art Kit - https://shorturl.at/pyKr8
8%
Magic Potion Kit for Girls - https://shorturl.at/oyAiS
3%
Zero gravity RC car https://shorturl.at/PEX3c
4%
Sidewalk Chalk - https://shorturl.at/XhOP5
4%
Giant Sequoia Crystal Growing Kit https://shorturl.at/tZ1dd
11%
GiantMicrobes Water Bear https://shorturl.at/LuabV
7%
Mini Pompom Pet Kit https://shorturl.at/f7j8h
8%
4 pack 100 piece jigsaw puzzles, animal themed - https://shorturl.at/Wa0Px
11%
DIY Pirate Sword https://shorturl.at/trfju
12%
Disco Ball Lights https://shorturl.at/TB8EG
2%Other

Christmas is approaching, I have a 6-year-old daughter and I could use some help picking toys for her. At market close, I will show her the top 5–15 toys and ask her to choose her favorite one. There's a 2000 mana prize to the person that submitted the winning toy.

When there are more than 10 answers submitted, I may gradually rule out some low-probability options. These rule-outs are not final: within 24 hours of an option being ruled out, if a trader strongly believes it still has a good chance of winning, they may place a 1,000 mana 10% YES limit order on that option to demonstrate conviction, and I will revive it.

I have not pre-specified how many top-ranked toy will appear in the final list. X will be chosen arbitrarily between 5 and 15 as a way to deter sniping and whale-baiting.

When submitting an answer, please include a very brief description of the toy and a link to purchasing it online. The toy should be purchasable online (preferably Amazon), and have a price tag of less than $25 (not including shipping and tax).

Please use https://www.shorturl.at/ to shorten the url. I can shorten it for you if you don't know how do it.

If she picks multiple options or cannot decide between them, I will resolve to multiple options with equal weights.

The market close date is tentative.


  • Update 2025-12-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a submitted toy option turns out to be one the daughter already owns, the submitter will be allowed to pick a different toy to replace their submission.

  • Update 2025-12-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Each submitter may only submit one toy option for consideration, even if multiple items could fit within the $25 budget.

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Enjoy the joy of squishmallows! Nobody is quite sure how they breed but if our house is any indication, you will soon have thousands of them.

@MRME pretty amazing that you somehow guessed it right.

@AmmonLam I mean I submitted it lol. I’ve got kids too haha.

@creator any updates?

@MRME I'm still away from home so can't do it

We await the verdict

@AmmonLam Have your kid made her decision?

reposted

Turns out these adorable critters are so reasonably priced that you can buy a second one and still remain under the $25 budget ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

@TheAllMemeingEye You only get to pick one though

@AmmonLam fine, just the water bear

Could you list a few of her currently owned favourite toys?

@TheAllMemeingEye I'll name a few here that comes to mind: Rainbow loom, slimes, Sticker by number book, and a few stuffy animals.

@AmmonLam thanks, which kinds of animals does she currently have?

@TheAllMemeingEye not giving you a list, too much effort

@AmmonLam If I submit an option and it turns out she already has it, can you edit it to another similar but not already owned item of my choice? If I share it in the comments first someone may steal my submission

@TheAllMemeingEye Yea I would let you pick a different one if you happened to added a toy she already has

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