1,000
3.00The staffs were pretty explicit about their intent to make Manifold real money in yesterday’s voice chat. I was there for over 4 hours (many of you are, too)
I made early comments about how Pivot getting ready for real money trading is sufficient for this market to resolve YES. This is much more than getting ready for real money trading, it’s making all bets on Manifold having real money value as soon as pivot is launched
@houstonEuler Sue them and get them to get back to pre-pivot state.
I’ll send 20000 mana to you if we got back to the pre-pivot state
It's BS that markets are going to misresolve because of how Manifold is framing things for the regulator.
If Manifold hadn't put any words out to describe the system and it was up to us to describe it, we would call it real money betting. You can put money into a platform, win bets, and take out your winnings as well as your initial money.
That's real money betting, and it's how we would describe it.
Manifold has put a bunch of words around it to try and make it sound like that's not what it is, and of course they have to do that. Doesn't change the fact that it's real money betting.
@chrisjbillington yep it's obvious and ammon isn't silly so this market will resolve YES. Other markets who knows
@chrisjbillington @jim I think a key difference is that real money "trading" implies that you can earn money by buying into and selling out of a position. That's what real money trading websites like Kalshi and Polymarket allow, but this system specifically does not.
"Profits that come from selling out of positions before market resolution will not be eligible for prize points."
@houstonEuler Nah, you still can.
You can trade and get mana, then you can launder the mana into prize points by holding something to resolution.
Nobody who cares about making profit will hesitate at all to sell if it would be profitable.
@chrisjbillington That doesn't change the fact that they can't cash out the initial trades.
Just because some users exploit a system doesn't mean Manifold is "introducing real money trading."
There are heavy U.S. regulations concerning real money trading, and Manifold is statutorily abiding by those regulations through this system, which is why they purposely are not introducing real money trading.
@houstonEuler It's real money trading and everyone is going to describe it that way, possibly even the regulators.
@chrisjbillington Manifold is not describing it that way, which is why this market should resolve NO.
@jim The crux of y'alls argument is "They don't mean what they said".
Just because you can buy illegal drugs, doesn't change the fact that they're illegal. I imagine if Manifold finds traders who are laundering profits from trading into cash, they'll ban those traders, because it could get them into trouble with regulators.
Manifold necessarily needs to not be introducing real money trading, to avoid getting shut down by regulators.
If this market resolves YES, @AmmonLam should create a new market, "Will Manifold get shut down for operating an illegal futures exchange?"
The crux of y'alls argument is "They don't mean what they said".
100% correct
If this market resolves YES, @AmmonLam should create a new market, "Will Manifold get shut down for operating an illegal futures exchange?"
These markets exist already and are trading at non-insignificant prices
https://manifold.markets/browse/for-you?q=CFTC&s=score&f=open&ct=ALL
I think this should resolve NO:
"Mana will remain as a purely play-money currency used to bet on markets...The sweepstakes model has more restrictions and is importantly different from real-cash betting, but we hope it provides the incentive people need to bring higher quality forecasting to our platform."
@houstonEuler I’m not saying this because I voted no (I did that because I’m deeply familiar with CFTC rulings around prediction markets) but I honestly think this is an N/A.
It’s definitionally NOT real money trading, but if you squint there’s an argument it is.
@AmmonLam I hate N/A markets, but I do think this fits the criteria (tho the CFTC will bring fury down in like 2.5 years cause they’re the worst)
@JoelBecker you buy mana with real money and then you redeem your bets for real money. It's real money trading with a little bit of gymnastics to avoid getting in trouble with the law.