https://manifold.markets/Pjfkh/will-iran-strike-directly-against-i

Made a “YES/NO” market for a possible Iranian response:

Will Iran strike directly against Israel in 2024 following Israel’s 26th October 2024 strikes on Iran?

50% chance. Israel’s large and publicly acknowledged strikes on Iranian air-defence, missile production, and (at time of writing still unconfirmed) potentially also nuclear facilities at Parchin on 26th October have been met with a dismissive public statement response from the Iranian regime. Will Iran respond directly against Israel again (as on October 1st 2024) , or attempt to stop the spiral by not retaliating directly, instead relying on proxies or even “doing nothing extra”? Time bound for 2024. Any attack from Iran or Iranian forces (IRGC, Iranian Military, Navy included) against Israel proper will resolve to YES.

https://x.com/WarrenRisks/status/1849957703961149630?t=m20QDdQnORyXDoY9oOs_Gw&s=19

The attack has started.

What’s a “direct attack”?

What are they waiting for? The US election?

In terms of gulf states reportedly not allowing IDF aircraft access to their airspace for such an attack, is the assumption that Israel will ignore that? (And also, maybe they are publicly denying access to limit their risk of counterattack by Iran, while covertly agreeing to Israeli flyovers)

https://nypost.com/2024/10/01/world-news/israel-announces-powerful-airstrikes-across-middle-east-in-retaliation-for-iran-missile-attack/

How will you distinguish between an assassination attempt and an attack? I find it hard to see an interpretation of the word "assassination" which doesn't imply an attack...

@DanielFox9fff I agree with tour criticism. What I meant is attacks like the assasination attempt of ismahil aneyiha do not count. I think a more defined statement would revolve around an aerial attack which dsecribes better what I meant than the ambiguos term attack. Should I update the statement?

@AmirKrispin If people think this rephrasing is too much of a deviation from the original statement I would keep it this way and distinguish the cases by how most press characterizes the operation.

@AmirKrispin I recommend being as precise as possible in the definition of the question.

If your intention is that the question should refer only to an attack launched through the air not originating on Iranian soil, say so in the description.

If your intention is that the question should refer only to an attack involving explosives, say so in the description.

Try to leave as little as possible open to interpretation, especially if you're betting on your own market.

@DanielFox9fff Thank you, I have updated the statement to be more precise.