Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de). In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.

Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President. If another individual has been sworn in as Chancellor or acting Chancellor, this market resolves to NO.

Background

Following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition in late 2024, Germany held early federal elections on February 23, 2025. Friedrich Merz, leading the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), emerged victorious and was sworn in as Germany's Federal Chancellor on May 6, 2025. This market tracks whether he will remain the head of government through the start of 2027.