Will Israel invade Lebanon before September 1, 2024?
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93
Ṁ37k
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Criterion for “invasion” in this market is a military action involving the crossing over into Lebanese territory of either:

a. 5000 Israeli troops,

b. 7 battalions or

c. 2 brigades

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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ250 YES

What does "5000 Israeli troops" mean? Do they all have to be inside Lebanon at the same time? And how does this resolve if the exact numbers are not public?

Very good point. I revised with criteria that approximates that number of troops and is likely to be publicly available information.