Will Hezbollah launch a missile at Tel Aviv in 2024?
24
160
1k
2025
60%
chance

Will resolve to YES if a missile is launched by Hezbollah targeting Tel Aviv, irrespective of whether it is intercepted or succeeds in hitting its target.

I will consult statements by Hezbollah, as well as major newspapers (NYT, WSJ, etc.) before making a decision to resolve.

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