With the transplanted head considered the same person by medical consensus at the time and this person surviving for more than one year.

Disclaimers:

1. This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.

2. If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!