Global GDP will double compared to 2023 by... ?
Basic
16
735
Nov 21
92%
2060
85%
2055
82%
2050
74%
2045
52%
2040
34%
2035
15%
2030
3%
2025

Global GDP as defined and used by Ourworldindata: WorldinData.org, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia)

All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2031, then 2035, 2040 etc will all resolve in YES.

Disclaimers:

  1. This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.

  2. If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!

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