Will the 2024 presidential election result be disputed? The 2000 (Bush versus Gore), 2016 (Clinton versus Trump), and 2020 (Biden versus Trump) elections are examples of disputed results that would cause this market to resolve yes.
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Would this cause it to resolve YES in September if this happens?:
There is a trial where they are attempting to block trump from running in lots of important states, and there is a demonstration with 500k+ people which turns violent and goes on for a week or two, in september, national guard called in, supreme court needs to meet in a protected building to hold the trial, contested result where some justices refuse to recuse themselves, close outcome against trump but which some states refuse to follow, ongoing protests of 100k+ causing massive disruption in DC and other major cities, republicans plan to write-in trump even in states where he's explicitly blocked, nobody knows what happens there or if write-ins will be counted, international economic crisis due to global loss of faith in the US system
@Joshua Good point, I’ve updated the description. I think Trump tweeting about voter fraud alone wouldn’t be sufficient to qualify as a serious election result dispute, but something like Stein recounting votes in 2016 or Trump refusing to concede and accept the election results as a candidate in 2020 would cause this market to resolve yes.