Will the "Will there be another letter ... by May 31st?" market resolve YES?
resolved May 30

This market is about the resolution of the market currently titled "Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?"

Lots of people are interested in this question and are currently estimating the probability of the event "a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 2023". The letter is well-recognized "if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may address any sorts of risks from powerful AI".

However, due to reasons unknown to the manifold community, the above market has been delisted which means the predictors who correctly estimated the probability of event in question will not be rewarded with league points.

This market provides an opportunity to bet on the same event with the benefit of it being listed and the market participants skills will be rewarded in their leagues.

This market resolves YES if the market currently titled "Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?" resolves YES.

It will resolve NO otherwise.

I will not delist this market.

Link: https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
predicted NO

I have closed the market. As discussed I will wait for a few hours before resolving in case there is some dispute. I hope that is okay with everyone.

@MayMeta It could still get re-resolved

bought Ṁ10,000 of YES

@ShadowyZephyr yes, but shouldn't

sold Ṁ4,607 of YES

@ShadowyZephyr such an exemplary market on predicting a future event will never be re-resolved by the admins based on a tiny technicality. At the end of the day, the market was about s Big statement on AI risk by lots of Big people. It happened. And judging by the media, it's a big deal. Manifold successfully predicted it 5-9 days ahead, it would be utterly wrong to re-resolve it as N/A

* although I am withdrawing some funds, cuz 10 mana profit is not worth the arguing

bought Ṁ100 of NO

How does this resolve if the other market resolves yes and then is re-resolved no or n/a?

predicted NO

@MartinRandall I am planning to wait with the resolution if the resolution of the linked market is controversial. If the linked market gets re-resolved anyway I will ask the admins to also re-resolve this one.

predicted NO

Deleted comment: wrong market

bought Ṁ5 of NO

I just noticed this resolves no if the other market resolves n/a

predicted NO

@MartinRandall good catch!

predicted NO

@Fedor I didn't think about this to be honest. I am okay with a mirror resolution, but I don't want to change the criteria with this many people already invested. Any thoughts?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@AlexbGoode I think this is fine, at least his was one of the 2 markets will resolve not N/A, which is partly what I want out of this market.

@MartinRandall I just came here to ask that question lol

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Please adjust description to be clear about which one...

@MartinRandall sorry, I don't understand. Can you elaborate what is unclear?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@AlexbGoode there are (at least) three "will there be another letter?" markets for different dates, it felt unclear that you were asking about the May market. Maybe I'm just slow today.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@MartinRandall he put the May 31 market in the description.

@AlexbGoode it would be nice to edit it into the title (like "Will there be another letter... May31st").

predicted NO

The market is linked, so it's unambiguous.

@MartinRandall I have updated the title and description to increase clarity and explain the motivation why this market exists. Please let me know if you have additional suggestion.

predicted NO

@AlexbGoode looks like you typoed "May"