Tuberculosis is a curable and preventable infectious disease. And yet, over 10 million people fall ill with it every year, and over 1.5 million people die.
Resolves to the year in which the WHO reports less than 1 million people dying from TB or the year there are less then 1 million humans alive.
I will add a new year as answers as time goes by. So if you predict this will happen later than 2029 you can bet on 'Other.'
Relvant links:
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tuberculosis-deaths-region
1,000
3.00Ending the TB epidemic by 2030 is among the health targets of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis
Any reasons forecasters think there is a 60% probability that the UN fails?
It looks like the WHO data disagrees with the Our World In Data data - the former says 1.6 million deaths in 2023, while the latter shows around 1.2 million deaths in 2019 and decreasing. It could be that the number has gone up massively in the last few years - I’m not very familiar with it - but something to keep in mind for anyone who wants to just extrapolate the OWID data.
@Gabrielle Thanks for the hint. OWID uses the Global Burden of Disease study https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/
Idk why the data is so different. Just to reiterate: the question resolves based on WHO data.