According to the Institute for the Study of War, per its September 8 report: "Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum."
If there is confirmation before the end of September 12 that they captured the town before the end of September 11, the question resolves to "YES". Otherwise, "NO". The question only closes 24 hours after the end of September 11, because it can take a few hours for a town's capture to be confirmed after it has actually happened.
1,000
3.00"The towns of Izyum and Kupiansk, both key hubs for the supply of Russian forces in Donbas, were taken by Ukraine on Saturday"
and
"Russia confirmed it had withdrawn from the key towns of Izyum and Kupiansk on Saturday, saying that the retreat would allow its troops to "regroup"."
from the BBC
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1569021401327194116?t=yUFebxMiiWJ2KI7H77umMQ&s=19
I think it's reasonably clear that the new front line is along the Oskil river, which cuts Kupyansk in half. I don't know enough to say whether possession of the western half suffices to ensure the strategic goals listed in the question. So all that's left to decide on this question is whether capturing the western half counts for the purpose of this market.
@CharlesDillon Still given https://manifold.markets/AlexandreK/will-ukrainian-forces-capture-kupya#zQSW48lGRs3HZJ33crT2 I sold at loss
@TjadenHess As stated in another comment, the market will resolve to YES if by the end of today, we get confirmation that all of Kupiansk was under Ukrainian control by the end of yesterday. Right now, it seems that's not the case, but there are still a few hours left in the day (in my time zone, anyway), so I'm leaving it open for now.
Next time I create a market, I'll try to make things less ambiguous from the beginning. This was my first one, and it was rather confusing, sorry!
@AlexandreK Why did this resolve NO? The city was recaptured before the deadline, and was indeed confirmed recaptured before your confirmation deadline? https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-september-ukrainian-armed-forces-have-liberated-kupiansk
@Endovior Sorry for being rude, but have you tried reading the comment you replied to and looking at the map you linked to? Alexandre clearly said that the marker resolves YES only if Ukraine recaptures all of Kupiansk. And the map clearly shows that only part west of Oskil river has been recaptured. Ergo it can't be a YES.
@Endovior As Yev said, because it wasn't entirely captured, and still hasn't been, actually.
Ramzan Kadyrov today saying "Kupiansk will be liberated again" suggesting the Russian perspective is that Kupiansk is Ukrainian territory now.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1568855925997408256?t=hoFxPK_V8sTt7ITgpER6cg&s=19
"Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum." This is the question text.
The majority of the city, and all of the ground transport links to Izyum from Russia via Kupiansk, go through the west side of the city, which is controlled by Ukraine and no longer contested. Strategically speaking, the west side is the valuable part. I think resolving no given this would be a very strange decision.
@CharlesDillon I agree, but resolving YES if parts of Kupyansk are not captured would also be strange. I think PROB is the best option.
@Yev You are correct sorry, my mistake. Only one of the two main real lines comes from the west side
Media is certainly acting like Kupiansk is liberated. No reports of significant fighting ongoing there. I think this report should be sufficient to resolve positive.
@CharlesDillon Institute for the Study of War reported that liberation of west bank of that city happened yesterday.
@CharlesDillon > No reports of significant fighting ongoing there
That's perfectly consistent with "Ukraine controls everything west of Oskil, Russia controls everything east of Oskil, neither side can cross the river without taking significant losses"
This should probably resolve to YES now.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1568493582549680129?s=20&t=q78mf-DavlRuCPDwSJfSxA
@M If only half of it is captured, I don't think it should be considered captured, so it would resolve to NO. But there's still a bit more than a day left.
@FutureOwl And even if they can (which seems plausible in this case), it'd be very hard convincingly prove that they control the entire city before the deadline.