Will Azerbaijan attack Armenia in Sep 2023?
closes Sep 30

YES if military troops of Azerbaijan will cross at least for a 1 day official Armenian border on any OSINT map before 1st of October.

P.S. Previously occupied or contested terrirories (~ 50 km2) are not counted

Get Ṁ500 play money

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PeterBuyukliev avatar
Peter Buyuklievsold Ṁ5 of YES

Made a duplicate of this market for longer timeframe, 3 months:

RichardHannay avatar
Richard Hbought Ṁ70 of YES

You all swung in the other direction once you noticed that NK is not part of the question but there's 10 more days in September and Azerbaijan is already breaking the seasefire. I should have sold at 98 but swinging this low has given me the opportunity to earn extra.

3 replies
SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts NO

@RichardHannay I think this market is properly priced and would be willing to buy much more no at 20%

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicts NO

@RichardHannay Have you considered just buying many more cheap YES shares instead of arguing with us?

RichardHannay avatar
Richard Hpredicts YES

@42irrationalist I did cause at this point I am far enough in the hole that it makes little difference

TimothyBandors avatar
Timothy Bandors

I have never seen such swings so fast in a market.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ140 of YES

It looks like people are overreacting when buying NO. The probability now should probably be higher than before the operation, even if the operation itself doesn’t qualify.

3 replies
42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistbought Ṁ200 of NO

@Gabrielle I didn't even know this market existed before the operation

PeterBuyukliev avatar
Peter Buyuklievpredicts YES

@Gabrielle the thing is, September is almost over

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicts YES

@PeterBuyukliev Yeah, I only realized about twelve hours later that the market referred to September only, not the rest of the year… So that was my mistake.

Joshuasold Ṁ12 ofNO
Joshua avatar
1 reply
SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrybought Ṁ0 of NO

@Joshua i can't believe what happened to this market the second i stopped looking

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrybought Ṁ40 of NO

@Botlab taking big dubs

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ0 of YES

New strategy for whenever I see someone spend a bunch of mana on something I don't know anything about:

1 reply
SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrybought Ṁ0 of NO

@Joshua very good, except it presents the Soviet Union way too neutrally. Stalin intentionally drew the borders to create ethnic conflict so that they would fight each other instead of communism.

JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkespredicts YES

Does this market consider Artsakh a part of Armenia?

3 replies
Nosaix avatar
Nosaixbought Ṁ100 of NO

@JoshuaWilkes I think the ~50km2 in the description mainly refers to Artsakh / Karabakh. I.e. occupied / contested territory, not Armenia proper. Plus the PM of Armenia officially considers this territory as part of Azerbaijan, as of earlier this year

JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkespredicts YES

@Nosaix Artsakh/NK appears to have an area of more than 3000km2, so I suspect it doesn't refer to it. But only the creator can tell us 😬

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes Artsakh is not part of Armenia in any sense. The question is fairly clear, referring to the official Armenian border

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalry

I mean, Azerbaijan currently occupies about 50 square kilometers of internationally recognized Armenian territory, which doesn't seem quite in the spirit of this market. Description should clarify

1 reply
AlexanderZ avatar
Alexander Zykinpredicts YES

@SemioticRivalry Do you mean territories previously marked as contested/occupied on wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29 ?