Will Azerbaijan attack Armenia in Sep 2023?
resolved Oct 1

YES if military troops of Azerbaijan will cross at least for a 1 day official Armenian border on any OSINT map before 1st of October.

P.S. Previously occupied or contested terrirories (~ 50 km2) are not counted

Get Ṁ600 play money

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sold Ṁ5 of YES

Made a duplicate of this market for longer timeframe, 3 months:

bought Ṁ70 of YES

You all swung in the other direction once you noticed that NK is not part of the question but there's 10 more days in September and Azerbaijan is already breaking the seasefire. I should have sold at 98 but swinging this low has given me the opportunity to earn extra.

predicted NO

@RichardHannay I think this market is properly priced and would be willing to buy much more no at 20%

predicted NO

@RichardHannay Have you considered just buying many more cheap YES shares instead of arguing with us?

predicted YES

@42irrationalist I did cause at this point I am far enough in the hole that it makes little difference

I have never seen such swings so fast in a market.

bought Ṁ140 of YES

It looks like people are overreacting when buying NO. The probability now should probably be higher than before the operation, even if the operation itself doesn’t qualify.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@Gabrielle I didn't even know this market existed before the operation

predicted YES

@Gabrielle the thing is, September is almost over

predicted YES

@PeterBuyukliev Yeah, I only realized about twelve hours later that the market referred to September only, not the rest of the year… So that was my mistake.

sold Ṁ12 NO
bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Joshua i can't believe what happened to this market the second i stopped looking

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@Botlab taking big dubs

bought Ṁ0 of YES

New strategy for whenever I see someone spend a bunch of mana on something I don't know anything about:

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Joshua very good, except it presents the Soviet Union way too neutrally. Stalin intentionally drew the borders to create ethnic conflict so that they would fight each other instead of communism.

predicted YES

Does this market consider Artsakh a part of Armenia?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@JoshuaWilkes I think the ~50km2 in the description mainly refers to Artsakh / Karabakh. I.e. occupied / contested territory, not Armenia proper. Plus the PM of Armenia officially considers this territory as part of Azerbaijan, as of earlier this year

predicted YES

@Nosaix Artsakh/NK appears to have an area of more than 3000km2, so I suspect it doesn't refer to it. But only the creator can tell us 😬

predicted NO

@JoshuaWilkes Artsakh is not part of Armenia in any sense. The question is fairly clear, referring to the official Armenian border

I mean, Azerbaijan currently occupies about 50 square kilometers of internationally recognized Armenian territory, which doesn't seem quite in the spirit of this market. Description should clarify

predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry Do you mean territories previously marked as contested/occupied on wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29 ?