YES if military troops of Azerbaijan will cross at least for a 1 day official Armenian border on any OSINT map before 1st of October.
P.S. Previously occupied or contested terrirories (~ 50 km2) are not counted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29
Related questions
You all swung in the other direction once you noticed that NK is not part of the question but there's 10 more days in September and Azerbaijan is already breaking the seasefire. I should have sold at 98 but swinging this low has given me the opportunity to earn extra.
@RichardHannay I think this market is properly priced and would be willing to buy much more no at 20%
@RichardHannay Have you considered just buying many more cheap YES shares instead of arguing with us?
@42irrationalist I did cause at this point I am far enough in the hole that it makes little difference
It looks like people are overreacting when buying NO. The probability now should probably be higher than before the operation, even if the operation itself doesn’t qualify.
@Gabrielle I didn't even know this market existed before the operation
@PeterBuyukliev Yeah, I only realized about twelve hours later that the market referred to September only, not the rest of the year… So that was my mistake.
@Joshua i can't believe what happened to this market the second i stopped looking
New strategy for whenever I see someone spend a bunch of mana on something I don't know anything about:
@Joshua very good, except it presents the Soviet Union way too neutrally. Stalin intentionally drew the borders to create ethnic conflict so that they would fight each other instead of communism.
@JoshuaWilkes I think the ~50km2 in the description mainly refers to Artsakh / Karabakh. I.e. occupied / contested territory, not Armenia proper. Plus the PM of Armenia officially considers this territory as part of Azerbaijan, as of earlier this year
@Nosaix Artsakh/NK appears to have an area of more than 3000km2, so I suspect it doesn't refer to it. But only the creator can tell us 😬
@JoshuaWilkes Artsakh is not part of Armenia in any sense. The question is fairly clear, referring to the official Armenian border
I mean, Azerbaijan currently occupies about 50 square kilometers of internationally recognized Armenian territory, which doesn't seem quite in the spirit of this market. Description should clarify
@SemioticRivalry Do you mean territories previously marked as contested/occupied on wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29 ?
