Will Noam Chomsky survive 2023?
resolved Jan 1

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

Chomsky has stopped responding to emails and Finkelstein was unable to contact him to discuss his views on the recent I/P news.

predicted NO

I hope he'll survive until the singularity

Based on only https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html his chance of surviving is 73.3%. Based on this information alone I am conservatively betting NO.

predicted YES

@parhizj your table lists the "probability of dying within one year," but 2023 is almost half over.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@ProratedSeltzer Correct, I thought of this but I didn't bother interpolating because well, honestly, I was too lazy. Here is a naive, linear interpolation: P(Surviving after X=165 days) = 1 - ((-0.266933 / 365) * X + 0.266933) = 0.85373534246. So I should update to YES, as the probability is 85.4%. I used this chart to look up that June 14 (yesterday) was the 165th day of the year:


Oops: I forgot to bet previously, so now I am betting YES (yay for mistakes)? Interestingly, the market (83%) is already pretty close to this value (85%).

bought Ṁ38 of YES

@parhizj Been a while since updating:
1 - ((-0.266933 / 365) * 199 + 0.266933) = 0.87860033424

Increasing YES bet.

sold Ṁ68 of YES

@parhizj Selling for liquidity.

bought Ṁ214 of YES

1 - ((-0.266933 / 365) * 271 + 0.266933) = 93.1 %