Who will win the race for Mayor of San Francisco in November 2024?
41
6.2kṀ47k
resolved Nov 16
100%99.0%
Daniel Lurie
0.6%
London Breed
0.0%
Ahsha Safai
0.1%
Aaron Peskin
0.2%
Mark Farrell
0.0%Other

Feel free to add markets for other contenders if relevant.

US Politics
California
San Francisco
Mayoral Elections in the 50 largest U.S. cities
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bought Ṁ13,000 YES

The race was called for Lurie

sold Ṁ4 NO

@mods

bought Ṁ201 YES

Arb opportunity here with 4K subsidy
https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/who-will-the-san-francisco-mayoral

With the SF Dems for Change winning the DCCC last night, it seems likely that Breed will have the backing of the SF Democratic Party. I think that makes her election substantially more likely.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/mayor-london-breed-election-18678601.php

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