What will be AFC Wimbledon's final league position in the 2024-25 EFL League Two regular season?
8
1kṀ11k
resolved May 4
100%99.0%
4-7 (Playoff spots)
0.2%
1-3 (Automatic promotion)
0.6%
8-22 (Mid-table)
0.2%
23-24 (Relegation)

There are 24 clubs in EFL League Two. Four teams are promoted to League One: the top three teams, and the winner of a playoff between teams 4-7. The bottom two are relegated to the semi-professional National League.

The current League Two standings are available here.

Sports
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ805
2Ṁ181
3Ṁ125
4Ṁ47
5Ṁ18
Sort by:

Playoff market: https://manifold.markets/AlexSemendinger/which-team-will-win-the-efl-league?play=true

bought Ṁ231 NO

Here's what can happen tomorrow:
• Wimbledon win or draw: make playoffs

• Wimbledon lose and either Chesterfield OR Salford City win: miss playoffs

If I'm reading the betting odds and doing the math right, they imply Wimbledon have a 70% chance to make the playoffs.

bought Ṁ130 NO

For reference, the zero-information probabilities for each option should be


1-3 (Automatic promotion): 12.5% = 3/24
4-7 (Playoff spots): 16.7% = 4/24
8-22 (Mid-table): 62.5% = 15/24
23-24 (Relegation): 8.3% = 2/24

I've made some initial trades to roughly reflect these odds.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules