Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve to YES or NO independently based on announcements and events occurring during or in immediate relation to OpenAI Dev Day 2026 (scheduled for September 29, 2026). If Dev Day 2026 is officially rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the rescheduled event.

Specific resolution rules for the initial options:

• OpenAI Perpetuals increase in value by >2%: Resolves to YES if the price of the USDT-Margined OpenAI Perpetual contract (OPENAIUSDT on Binance) at exactly 24 hours after the official start of the Dev Day 2026 keynote is at least 2.0% higher than the contract price at the start of the keynote. Otherwise, resolves to NO. If the contract is delisted or Binance is completely inaccessible to verify the data, this option resolves to N/A.

• OpenAI reveals Jony Ive/LoveFrom device details: Resolves to YES if OpenAI officially reveals either the visual form factor (physical/digital design or render) or the official product name of the consumer AI hardware device being developed in collaboration with Jony Ive, LoveFrom, or the acquired startup io. Mentioning the partnership or general ecosystem plans without revealing a name or design does not qualify. Otherwise, resolves to NO.

• OpenAI releases a Grok Bot competitor: Resolves to YES if OpenAI launches or officially previews a competitor to SpaceXAI's "Grok Bot"—specifically, a system of always-on AI teammates/agents designed to manage multi-step workflows, control cloud-based virtual environments, or run autonomous tasks across third-party software. Otherwise, resolves to NO.

• OpenAI releases/previews "Persistent Mode": Resolves to YES if OpenAI officially launches or publicly previews "Persistent Mode" (or an equivalent always-on, proactive agent that generates its own follow-up tasks and works autonomously across sessions). Otherwise, resolves to NO.

For any newly added options (which can be added by anyone), they will resolve to YES if the specified event occurs during or is officially announced in conjunction with OpenAI Dev Day 2026, and NO otherwise.

Background

OpenAI's annual Dev Day serves as its premier showcase for developer-focused APIs, model updates, and platform features. Key context for the proposed props:

• OPENAIUSDT: Binance launched a pre-IPO USDS-margined perpetual contract for OpenAI Group PBC under the ticker OPENAIUSDT in May 2026, providing a liquid proxy market for OpenAI's implied valuation.

• Jony Ive / LoveFrom Device: OpenAI acquired io Products (founded by Jony Ive) in 2025 for over $6 billion. OpenAI leadership confirmed that a screenless, voice-first consumer hardware device is slated for debut in the second half of 2026.

• Grok Bot: SpaceXAI launched Grok Bot in August 2026 as an always-on AI teammate platform. Reports from September 2026 indicate OpenAI is actively developing features to counter Grok Bot's workflow capabilities.

• Codex "Persistent Mode": In late August 2026, reports surfaced that OpenAI was testing a "Persistent Mode" for its Codex CLI coding agent, which allows agents to run continuously, formulate self-directed follow-up tasks, and message users proactively.