Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple choice market evaluating conditional movements in the value of the Israeli New Shekel (ILS). Each answer represents an independent proposition with an explicit condition and a subsequent price movement target over a specified time window (typically 48 hours).

• FX Benchmark: FX price moves will be measured using the USD/ILS spot exchange rate reported by TradingView (USDILS) or the official representative exchange rates published by the Bank of Israel.

  • Shekel strengthens / appreciates: A decrease in the USD/ILS exchange rate (fewer Shekels per US Dollar) by the specified percentage threshold relative to the reference spot rate at the exact timestamp the trigger event is established.

  • Shekel weakens / depreciates: An increase in the USD/ILS exchange rate (more Shekels per US Dollar) by the specified percentage threshold relative to the reference spot rate at the exact timestamp the trigger event is established.

  • Weekend / Market Close Timing: If a 48-hour evaluation window spans hours when foreign exchange markets are closed or illiquid, the post-event measurement will look at the earliest available official trading rate upon market reopening, up to 48 active market hours post-trigger.

• Conditional Trigger Preconditions:

  • For political probability thresholds (e.g., Eisenkot becoming ≥99% to be Prime Minister, or hung Knesset ≥99%), odds must reach the specified threshold on major public prediction platforms (such as Polymarket or Manifold) or be determined by official election certification/coalition formation.

  • For geopolitical events (e.g., ceasefire termination, war conclusion), the trigger timestamp is established when credible, consensus reporting by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP) or official government communiqués confirm the event.

• Resolution of Answers:

  • If the stated trigger condition occurs and the Shekel satisfies the specified percentage move within the 48-hour window, that option resolves YES.

  • If the stated trigger condition occurs but the Shekel fails to reach the specified percentage threshold within the 48-hour window, that option resolves NO.

  • If the trigger condition does not occur before market close or by the market's ultimate expiration date, the option resolves N/A (voiding bets on that option).

• Anyone may add additional conditional proposals following the format: [Condition] -> [Shekel movement %] over [Timeframe].

Background

The Israeli Shekel (ILS) has historically displayed high sensitivity to domestic political instability and regional security flare-ups. Geopolitical escalation involving regional adversaries and domestic political deadlocks (such as hung Knesset results and prolonged coalition negotiations) have historically driven sharp short-term depreciation pressures against the USD. Conversely, de-escalation milestones, ceasefire confirmations, and stable political resolutions have often triggered swift relief rallies in the currency.