Will someone finally write a post on the microplastics problem on LessWrong or Effective Altruism forum by the end of 2024? (that is *just* as well-written as the post on the air pollution problem)
closes 2025
Sort by:
Gigacasting avatar

Dudes will literally talk about “microplastics” then consume soy and use polyester fabrics

L avatar
Lis predicting NO at 39%

@Duncan why buy yes? there are no posts on less wrong. there are no posts at all. nobody has ever put words next to each other. in order for such a post to exist, someone would have to write one, and nobody has ever had a thought in the first place, much less saw an idea on a prediction market and made it real.

Duncn avatar
Duncnis predicting YES at 39%

@L The linked article is one paragraph long. I bet someone can put together another paragraph.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackis predicting NO at 39%

that's a tag description, the posts in the tag are longer

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ30 of NO

@Duncan nobody has ever written a paragraph before. do you really think this is going to be the first time someone writes a paragraph? it is impossible. paragraphs are sequences of multiple sentences which provide the details to back up a point; that has never been done before, and certainly nobody is going to do it for the first time on a useful research topic that people care about. can't happen.

Duncn avatar
Duncnis predicting YES at 35%

@jacksonpolack Hmm... it would be useful to have a link to the referenced article.

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ10 of NO


jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackis predicting NO at 48%

i don't think it's that implausible. elaborate posts on random shit are pretty common on the forum

L avatar
Lis predicting NO at 48%

@jacksonpolack if they try, they will find themselves mysteriously unable to write a single word. their very thoughts will freeze in place. nobody would dare attempt a market like this, for nobody has ever written words before, so it could not possibly resolve positive

Related markets

Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)? 26%
Will Paul Christiano's "Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" post still be the most upvoted post on LessWrong at the beginning of 2025?18%
Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?1%
In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?86%
Will there be a post on the EA Forum with >1000 karma in 2023?42%
Vitalik funded me to make a Polis-style feature for Manifold and the LessWrong/EA Forum. In Jan 2024, what % of people will say in a twitter poll that this was a good idea?70%
Within 2 years, will I get a tattoo endorsing the Effective Altruism movement?12%
Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong upvotes before 2024?31%
By the end of 2023, will an EA Forum post have ≥1000 karma?43%
If the EA forum wiki changes to allow much more informative summaries (rather than very short introductions) before 2023, will wiki pages get 5x as many views compared to the rest of the forum as they currently do by 2024?
Will Lesswrong get fewer visits in March 2026 than in March 2023?29%
How many of these false/misleading statements in SMTM’s posts will they fix (or will be shown in the comments not to be false or misleading) before June 2023?0.95
Will LessWrong Petrov Day 2023 be about blowing up home page(s)?72%
Will the subreddit /r/ControlProblem have 20,000 subscribers by the end of 2023?67%
How much karma will my LessWrong post about affective gender identity in gay men get?40
(personal) will the Wikipedia article I'll submit, be published by the end of the month?40%
Will the MAD project that we are working on result in a finished manuscript paper by the end of 2023?43%
Will the number of ArXiv papers (min. 100 likes) posted on Twitter decline >50% in the next year?22%
Will Maridel have more total poems posted than V on The Inkwell by the end of 2023?68%
Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?26%