1
Will someone finally write a post on the microplastics problem on LessWrong or Effective Altruism forum by the end of 2024? (that is *just* as well-written as the post on the air pollution problem)
12
closes 2025
38%
chance
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Dudes will literally talk about “microplastics” then consume soy and use polyester fabrics

L avatar
Lis predicting NO at 39%

@Duncan why buy yes? there are no posts on less wrong. there are no posts at all. nobody has ever put words next to each other. in order for such a post to exist, someone would have to write one, and nobody has ever had a thought in the first place, much less saw an idea on a prediction market and made it real.

Duncn avatar
Duncnis predicting YES at 39%

@L The linked article is one paragraph long. I bet someone can put together another paragraph.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackis predicting NO at 39%

that's a tag description, the posts in the tag are longer

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ30 of NO

@Duncan nobody has ever written a paragraph before. do you really think this is going to be the first time someone writes a paragraph? it is impossible. paragraphs are sequences of multiple sentences which provide the details to back up a point; that has never been done before, and certainly nobody is going to do it for the first time on a useful research topic that people care about. can't happen.

Duncn avatar
Duncnis predicting YES at 35%

@jacksonpolack Hmm... it would be useful to have a link to the referenced article.

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ10 of NO

impossible

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackis predicting NO at 48%

i don't think it's that implausible. elaborate posts on random shit are pretty common on the forum

L avatar
Lis predicting NO at 48%

@jacksonpolack if they try, they will find themselves mysteriously unable to write a single word. their very thoughts will freeze in place. nobody would dare attempt a market like this, for nobody has ever written words before, so it could not possibly resolve positive

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