Q: Everyone in the diamond league is being promoted or demoted, đ¤ˇââď¸?
It wont end up empty because others will be promoted or demoted into it from other leagues.
edit: Theory disproven, mystery solved, see the answer getting worked out in the comments. There still might be some truth in my theory below in terms of how people behave differently at different levels of competition here.
My new theory:
At the highest levels (so the highest leagues) the only way to maintain it is to make high mana risky gambles on high liquidity markets, where (for example in yes/no markets) the percentage is as good as the experts can tell correct, so your guess is as good as any. It wont cut it to, for example, focus on easy low liquify markets, where you're expertise and/or research efforts allow you to win nearly every time when you can see that the percentage is way off.
Every 1024 times a coin is flipped 10 times, you'll get 10 heads, and that's who you're competing against. If you're in the top league you're not seeing the people there who failed too many flips, they've been demoted already.
The top league is masters, and it's already at the top, winners in that risky game don't promote anywhere. However the next one down, diamond league requires nearly as much risk. It's like starting a number at 100, and adding or subtracting 10% of its value at random, and repeating that 500 times over, and then expecting it to end up between 75 and 125, it wont.
Another league down again in the platinum league and more moderate risk does cut it, so a fair few people stay in the same league, not promoting or demoting.
1,000People are also trading
@AlanTennant I don't think it's that deep. Just make some solid trades each season, and it's fairly easy to end up in masters. There is some luck in diamond league, depending on who your competition is for the two promotion slots. Still, I think in general, people make too many trades on emotional/spontaneous decisions instead of thinking it through even for 10 seconds or doing some cursory Google searches. The market context button makes it easier than ever before.
@AlanTennant For context, I started 5 months ago and I've promoted every single season till Masters where im 3rd rn, so maybe take my word with a grain of salt, but I still think above holds given a couple more seasons of wiggle room for a decent, non-demoting postion in masters.
@prismatic So what's your reason for the Diamond League specifically to be emptying of all its current members, and being demotions as well as promotions? Given that the other leagues aren't doing this and you don't think it was random coincidence for just this month.
edit: I just noticed, the groupings with the wacky two part names decide who you're up against for the promotion slots, and the number of those is always the same, but the number of demotions vs staying put isn't, so it's just based on performance.
I would think that diamond doesn't cap people staying put at 0.
@AlanTennant imo the proximity to Masters makes people do dumb things. Everyone knows they're close to Masters, so they start taking positions on bad markets they'd normally skip and/or over-trading to news.
@prismatic solved it!
The profit/loss is shown on the right sorted into order, increasing towards the top and decreasing towards the bottom. Notice how at platinum (first image) the stay-put gap is between approx +10 and +120 mana, but at diamond it's between +1500 and +1500 mana. @ChurlishGambit was right, it was something else, the window tightens going up the leagues, until diamond where it's 0, and 2 people become masters.