How will the prices of the most expensive elements from the periodic table change between now February 20th 2026, and the end of the year.
➡️ Specifically, which decrease in price in USD.
I (tried to) select the most expensive ones that have a nailed down price. The price when this market was created is included in each item.
If the price changes too little to notice at this resolution of recording, or the item otherwise turns out to be problematic, then that item will resolve N/A. Sorry about this, valuably I've now gained experience about how to do markets like this more smoothly in the future.
Updated some previously inaccurate prices, as of market creation date.
Hafnium, feb 23rd 2026:
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/hafnium-prices
Rhodium, 20th feb 2026:
$353k, €326k = $384k
($353k + $384k) / 2 = $368k
https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalprices.php?c=rh&u=kg&d=20
https://pmm.umicore.com/en/prices/rhodium/
I may need to resolve these to N/A if the price today is genuinely unknown:
Neon, Thulium, 2016:
http://www.leonland.de/elements_by_price/en/list
Sorry, upon further research getting a reasonable and accurate price history for the following proved unviable, they have been resolved to N/A:
Neptunium
Technetium
Thallium
Rubidium
Caesium
Krypton
Xenon
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@AlanTennant thanks, the challenge with this market will be getting accurate up to date prices. Start with the more common metals. For example, goldprice.org could be a good source for gold price. Currently about 164k usd per kilogram. The other challenge is the old prices Wikipedia lists, everything has probably increased in price by now.
@EstMtz One source says gold = 163k per KG, so that's even more unlikely to drop below 75.43k, I'll use historic data is available, and update here if I'm able to edit items with said historic data for market creation date.
@AlanTennant On the Wikipedia chart the prices are from varying years. Two columns to the right of the price has the year and the next column has the source. Thulium at $3k per kg is from 2003. I'm not trying to be nitpicky for each of these, but it's challenging to place predictions when the starting price hasn't been defined for all of them.
Gold is rapidly gaining in value, even more than it usually does.
Silver and platinum are precious metals, used in jewellery.
Neon and Xenon are noble gasses, and can be used to make coloured lights for the outside of shops.
Caesium explodes when wet.
A lot of the rest of the options are radioactive.
As expensive as Lithium and Neodymium are, they don't even make the list, and are still cheaper than all these elements.
Changes to the price of the USD may also influence things.