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@JonathanRay so went short this and long the other out of my own personal incredulity that the pre-release probability distribution for box office receipts could be so narrow
@JonathanRay $200M is hardly "narrow;" many mid-budget movies would be lucky to even make that much for their whole box-office.
There are a lot of film releases every year, so it's not hard to find ones in a similar reference class. International blockbusters that pull ~$1B are almost always family-friendly animated films or PG13 action comedies linked to a major franchise. The only R-rated movie to gross more than $800M is Joker.
Oppenheimer is rated R, not a comedy, probably not very action-packed aside from the Trinity test, and focuses on a specific segment of American/WWII/science history that won't appeal to everyone. (Will many Japanese, for example, turn out to watch a film about the Manhattan project? We'll see!)
My current reference point for Oppenheimer is Dunkirk - also Nolan, also WWII, also a July release. If anything, Dunkirk should have better "financials," because it had more action and a more accessible rating. It grossed $527M.