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Shouldn’t this be resolved?

@RahulShah ye, please resolve @Akzzz123 it’s now at $649M

I have no idea how people predict this accurately enough that the 600M market is 5x higher than the 800M market

@JonathanRay so went short this and long the other out of my own personal incredulity that the pre-release probability distribution for box office receipts could be so narrow

@JonathanRay $200M is hardly "narrow;" many mid-budget movies would be lucky to even make that much for their whole box-office.

There are a lot of film releases every year, so it's not hard to find ones in a similar reference class. International blockbusters that pull ~$1B are almost always family-friendly animated films or PG13 action comedies linked to a major franchise. The only R-rated movie to gross more than $800M is Joker.

Oppenheimer is rated R, not a comedy, probably not very action-packed aside from the Trinity test, and focuses on a specific segment of American/WWII/science history that won't appeal to everyone. (Will many Japanese, for example, turn out to watch a film about the Manhattan project? We'll see!)

My current reference point for Oppenheimer is Dunkirk - also Nolan, also WWII, also a July release. If anything, Dunkirk should have better "financials," because it had more action and a more accessible rating. It grossed $527M.