YES = If Mira(or her alt) gets fined by Manifold before market close.
EDIT: Any sort of official punishment would resolve as YES.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ66 | |
| 2 | Ṁ25 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
People are also trading
This is the controversial market that led to this market being created:
The question itself is genuine: I was curious if the $20 ChatGPT subscription was worth it over paying the API.
The M5k subsidy is not: A couple days later I realized multi-binary markets are really tempting to subsidize like this, since people would be hesitant to claim the money since their certainty is diluted over many options. So waiting out the seeding time is less risky than a binary market, especially after you wait a day or two for the percentages to settle.
If Manifold wanted to patch this, removing all subsidized profit(from users and also Manifold) would probably make all the leaderboards more accurate. It would also be a good way to discourage those trader bonus games and "guaranteed resolution" markets without needing explicit tagging: Only profits obtained from other users would count. Creator subsidies would be entirely ineffective, and Manifold subsidies would only be effective to the extent that they cause inflation.
Unfortunately, this solution would also make most Manifolders feel really bad: The positive-sum profits from subsidies give everyone a slow-growing profit graph, tricking them into thinking they are good predictors. They lose less than they should, gain more than they should, and the subtle effect adds up over hundreds of markets. Still, I would be for it.
@Mira If you make Manifold zero-sum(negative sum, if market creation still costs mana?) instead of positive sum, then poor bettors will likely approach zero mana and eventually quit.
I don’t disagree with the assessment,
I just don’t know that I endorse zero-sum conversion.
Disclaimer: I’d probably have a consistent loss if not for the bonuses.
@JohnSmithb9be The profit would be zero-sum, not the mana. The actual mana everyone has and gets would be unchanged.
@MartinRandall Yes. In fact, that workaround is already in active use, specifically for the purpose of creating profits. (multi-binary with many options is a way to sneak a 25*100 subsidy in without anything obvious showing in the log)
@Mira Have you seen the film "The Matrix"? This reminds me of the scene where Morpheus gives Neo the choice of red pill or blue pill. @Mira you are Morpheus and are offering Manifoldas the choice to keep believing in the lies and fake gains that the bonuses offer (blue pill), or to take your solution (red pill) and have the bonuses stripped away to see the true stats.
Blue Pill or Red Pill - The Matrix (2/9) Movie CLIP (1999) HD - YouTube