Will Manifold add markers on the colored probabilty bar showing what probability my bet was made at?
13
559
Ṁ210
resolved Jul 2
Resolved
NO
The homepage currently shows a bar representing the current market probability. One piece of info I've wanted easy access to is the probability at which I made a bet, so that I can see how much the market has shifted. The probability bar seems like a great candidate for this by adding markers at where my bet was made. Multiple bets can either be shown as multiple markers/lines, or combined into a weighted average. This question will resolve to N/A if Manifold decides to remove the colored probability bars. Related question regarding whether Manifold will keep the probability bars: https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-manifold-get-rid-of-the-colore Close date updated to 2022-07-01 11:59 pm
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predicted YES
Didn't happen, but still think it would be great to have some indicator of what price/prob my avg. bet was at. cc @ian
bought Ṁ100 of NO
This seems like it would add a lot of visual complexity to the UI for something that most people won't care about. I think a different place would be better for this, like the "your bets" tab. Also I think the quick vote arrows are darker if you've placed a bet in that direction, which provides some of the information you're looking for.
bought Ṁ100 of YES
@IsaacKing I'd be suprised if most people don't care about how much the market has changed since they made the bet? At least for me, it tends to be the primary thing I care about wherever I see that market (and the related comments/info/news which might have led to a change). Also some good options to make it visually useful rather than adding to complexity; @noumena had a good suggestion in the comments below: https://manifold.markets/akhil/will-manifold-add-markers-on-the-co#ipqSy82zqGoOj1xu4Kwk I'm still more bullish than 20% on something along these lines being implemented.
predicted YES
The colored bar could be utilized with some other interesting information too, like the portion reflecting change in the last 24 hrs being a different shade.
predicted YES
And therefore, it might make sense to treat 50% as the base. So 4% is a long downwards red line from the center, rather than a short upward one from the bottom.
predicted YES
@AkhilWable the market “Will I roll a 6?” shouldn’t have 50% as the base
predicted YES
@noumena Good point
What if it was only colored in the interval between your bet and the current price? (Red if down since bet, green if up)
bought Ṁ10 of YES
If you bet multiple times, the (mean?) of your bets is marked?
predicted YES
@noumena Multiple markers, or if that is too noisy, then yeah, could show it at (Total Amount Invested / Total Quantity)
predicted YES
Colours would have to play nice and be consistent with markets where you haven't made a bet yet?
predicted YES
@AkhilWable I don’t think that markets you haven’t bet on need any color. The base rate could be 50% or 90%
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Love this idea!

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