By what year will humanity successfully develop the first 'digital person'?
7
365Ṁ1552031
7%
2023
7%
2024
7%
2025
7%
2026
7%
2027
7%
2028
7%
2029
7%
2030
45%
2031 or later or never
By what year will humanity successfully develop the first 'digital person'? This is defined as either an emulated human brain or an artificial general intelligence system with cognitive abilities equivalent to, or surpassing, those of an average human adult. The development of such a digital person does not necessarily imply the creation of a superintelligence, but rather an entity exhibiting human-level intelligence and cognitive capabilities.
The recognition of this 'digital person' as such must be validated by a consensus of leading experts in relevant fields, including neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and ethics, ensuring a comprehensive acknowledgment of its cognitive and sentient status.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Before what year will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer?
Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?
10% chance
Which country will be the first to grant personhood or some form of legal rights to an AI or other digital intelligence?
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2038?
35% chance
By the end of this century, will the dominant form of intelligent life on Earth be digital or biological?
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?
49% chance
In what year will human-level AI first exist?
2038
Will we have a reliable way of uploading people's minds onto computers by 2030?
18% chance
Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2040?
44% chance
Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2100?
69% chance