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There we go. You won. This was super unexpected judging by trends. Will have to be more careful in these markets. A week ago at my first trade I predicted the subcount 691 time between saturday and sunday with a full two days buffer.

Okay it's not over yet, I have no idea what timezone Socialblade goes by, but the market creator literally said we are going by SB statistics, so it might still flip to 691k before they move on to august.

@dgga yeah and the socialblade stats showed 690k when the market closed pepelaugh

@MarcusCrassus Reading comprehension test: does the market title read "Will destiny's youtube channel hit 691k subscribers in July?" or "Will destiny's youtube channel hit 691k subscribers by the time this market closes?"

By the title & description this line is all that matters:

If that line ever says 691k, this market should resolve YES

@dgga Reading comprehensiom test: did the end date on this market say "when socialblade says it's august" or did the close date say "1 aug"?

@MarcusCrassus Iiterally says "Going by his social blade stats."

Socialblade stats includes the date & time.

@dgga moot point

@MarcusCrassus just so you know, market close time only means betting is closed. It has nothing to do with resolution conditions. Not in this market, not in any market, unless explicitly otherwise stated. You could make a market that resolves in 10 years but close the betting after 5 minutes if you wanted. Your logic is not sound here.

On the off chance that Destiny hits 691K at the time that the market creator checks this market, as a trader who holds many shares for YES, the market closed at 690K and this should resolve NO.

According to my calculations, Destiny will have an estimated 691000.263 subscribers at market close. This is conclusive evidence that this market is mispriced will undoubtedly resolve YES.

Better find those old gmails...

@JohnoPomerat I did log in on my spam gmail but I had already been subscribed for 6 years :(

This market is actually crazy close, It could flip to 691 any second.

@dgga the current count is 690968 (my calculations were legit) i better pull up those emails i made in fifth grade insulting caillou's hairline 💀

@cece 970 now

@cece That site only shows an estimation, the number goes up by one every 5 minutes or so

@cece So the YouTube API only provides the subscriber number rounded down to 3 significant figures. Only creators have access to their true subscriber number.

Better get those subscriptions in...

5 more hours…

If you're a yes voter, you better be subbed.

@JohnoPomerat this easily resolves yes. no need to sub, i have immeasurable faith