Will Destiny s̶t̶i̶l̶l̶ have blue hair at the start of 2024?
Will Destiny s̶t̶i̶l̶l̶ have blue hair at the start of 2024?
84
1.9kṀ69kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if some part of Destiny's hair is blue at the end of 2023. Even brown hair with blue highlights will count as a YES.
Only his hair color at market close date matters. If he cuts his hair or dyes it a different color, it all doesn't matter as long as he dyes it blue again before the end of the year.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.