Will women who've been sexually assaulted as adults be more likely to have rape fetishes?
resolved Oct 5

short version: will at least 5% more women in absolute percentage points who've been sexually assaulted as adults mark interest in rapeplay compared to women who haven't been assaulted?

In my Big Kink Survey (n=619,000 now), I include a question

*question: As an adult, have you been the victim of sexual assault?

*tip: Sexual assault means unwanted physical sexual contact from someone else, such as groping or rape.

No (0)

Yes, mild (1)

Yes, moderate (2)

Yes, severe (3)

I also have a gated question for people who mark interest in nonconsent; this leads to a question which lists a bunch of nonconsent-related interests, with one of them "rapeplay". This is a binary checkbox option.

I'm going to compare the group of women who've answered the sexual assault question "No" and the group of women who've answered either "Moderate" or "Severe". I'm gonna ignore the 'mild' option.

If the rapeplay % interest in the moderate-severe group is 5% or higher than the no group, this question resolves yes. This is 5% absolute points, not relative.

I currently plan to only look at liberal women between the ages of 19-26, because this is a cheap way to help control for things and because that's already the majority of my sample.

(As of writing this I haven't looked at the answer)

Other version of this market (assault during childhood) is here https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-women-whove-been-sexually-assa-2bc54b919695

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predicted NO

Lesson learned, maybe I should rate my intuition higher relative to base rates and the null hypothesis.

predicted YES

a single bit of evidence isn't that much! There are many, many possible strategies that would've led you to bet YES on this, and only a very small fraciton of them generalize to the next 200 markets.

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack Well I'm rolling a number of considerations into "intuition" here, including personal experience with kinky women and my own untested theories of psychology. Stuff that's hard to qualify. Maybe "personal impression" would be a better word? I had actually intended to bet Yes when I found this market, but only changed my bet to No based on considerations of the base rate and the fairly high standard of the resolution criteria.

predicted NO

In what order are those questions asked?

predicted NO

@KongoLandwalker sexual assault question first. The questions were spaced very far apart in the survey though, people answered tons of other stuff inbetween

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Professor Chivers theorizes .... that arousal during sexual violence likely evolved “to reduce discomfort, and the possibility of injury, during vaginal penetration. . .

bought Ṁ30 of YES

"For instance, Meston, Heiman, & Trapnell (1999) found that among 1032 undergraduate students, after adjusting for physical and emotional abuse, neglect, and demographic variables, frequency of sexual abuse among young women was positively related to more permissive sexual attitudes and fantasies, frequency of masturbation, unrestricted sexual behavior, and frequency of intercourse." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7787260/

predicted NO

@Geriperi Some of that is going to be a genetic correlation

predicted YES

@JonathanRay You mean population structure? Genetic correlation is a broad concept that encompasses not just population structure but also horizontal pleiotropy and even vertical pleiotropy, making it nearly tautological that genetic correlations will match phenotypic correlations.

predicted NO

@tailcalled I was thinking horizontal pleiotropy. Genetic contributions to horniness and disinhibition would independently increase sexual abuse by relatives as well as the daughter’s odds of becoming a horny ho.

Base rate for null results in Aella’s fetish correlations is super duper high

why am i here

5% more, not 5 percentage points more, right?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

i think it's percentage points honestly

predicted YES

actually now i think it's 5%, because of the description

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Hmmm that could certainly make a difference.

predicted NO

@HarlanStewart I meant absolute percentage points I'm sorry

bought Ṁ20 of NO

tomas, put up a limit order at ~75 for no! increase liquidity to increase interest!

bought Ṁ20 of NO

(to reiterate, I haven't looked at the answer yet. Once I look at the answer I intend to stop buying)

bought Ṁ500 of NO

How long will this market remain open?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

buying $1.5k yes @ 50 if anyone disagrees!