Will women who've been sexually assaulted as children be more likely to have rape fetishes?
resolved Oct 5

short version: will at least 5% more women who've been sexually assaulted as children mark interest in rapeplay compared to women who haven't been assaulted?

(see adult version here: https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-women-whove-been-sexually-assa)

In my Big Kink Survey (n=619,000 now), I include a question

*question: Did you experience sexual assault in your childhood?

No (0)

Yes, mild (1)

Yes, moderate (2)

Yes, severe (3)

I also have a gated question for people who mark interest in nonconsent; this leads to a question which lists a bunch of nonconsent-related interests, with one of them "rapeplay". This is a binary checkbox option.

I'm going to compare the group of women who've answered the sexual assault question "No" and the group of women who've answered either "Moderate" or "Severe". I'm gonna ignore the 'mild' option.

If the rapeplay % interest in the moderate-severe group is 5% or higher than the no group, this question resolves yes.

I currently plan to only look at liberal women between the ages of 19-26, because this is a cheap way to help control for things and because that's already the majority of my sample.

(As of writing this I haven't looked at the answer)

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predicted YES

@Aella curious about the effect size. Are you planning to publish it?