How many people will I have sex with at my birthday gangbang?
115
5.6k
7.9k
resolved Feb 24
100%92%
36-40
0.1%
1-2
0.3%
3-5
0.8%
6-10
0.8%
11-15
0.6%
16-20
0.6%
21-25
0.9%
26-30
2%
31-35
1.3%
41-45
0.3%
46-50
0.2%
51-60
0.1%
61-70
0.0%
71-80
0.0%
81-90
0.0%
91-100
0.0%
101-150
0.1%
151+
0.1%
0

One of my boyfriends is organizing a birthday gangbang for me in February. I can't see the invite sheet. How many people will I end up having sex with during the gangbang (or maybe, rather, rail-train?)

Sex 'during the event' counts, and not before or after. If, for some reason, I arrive at the event and end up having sex with nobody, the answer will be 0.

If the event gets cancelled, then will resolve this market n/a

If I end up getting real shy and don't want to tell people the sexcount, will also resolve n/a (but i estimate lowish probability of this)

Sex for the purposes of this event is defined as vaginal penetration with penises

Get Ṁ600 play money

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@So8res 👀

Did the gang just bang?

sold Ṁ2 26-30 YES

@snazzlePop I’m up 500 in this market with zero insider info, I want a medal or something

@benshindel Congrats

🏅

@snazzlePop insideher trading

@benshindel don't ever let them tell you going on vibes doesn't pay 🏆

insight from the fluffer, fyi just in case anyone gets tempted to bet up those 51+ options

I assume this fluffer market is just an opportunistic meme

@shankypanky How come?

@BrianS vibes unless credibly reported otherwise? anyone can make a market, surely @Aella (hbd!) can confirm whether this is a vetted and designated fluffer.

@shankypanky Loving the phrase “vetted and designated fluffer”

@benshindel totally happy to speculate but I don't want to bet on a faux fluffer

@shankypanky It's real

@shankypanky it's real

@Aella okay off we go ✨

0
bought Ṁ2 0 YES

if, as you go through life, only 1 in 100 of your sex parties is cancelled, you're doing pretty darn good.

@Adam missed that "cancelled" is an N/A, lol

sold Ṁ14 21-25 YES

this looks to me like someone who is currently counting

bought Ṁ10 46-50 YES

@Joshua he's counting in the other market as well

>open manifold

>birthday gangbang

I love this site so much its unreal. I gotta ask, how does something like this even get organized?

@Rucker Over Google Forms, apparently

Wow, this market is unbelievable.

My comment should not be taken as disapproval - I believe that anyone should be welcomed to do whatever they want, and I hate how some people are uptight about sex and dating.

But it's sort of amazing the sort of different worlds that someone like me and someone like Aella live in, where I would consider finding a steady relationship difficult and in this market having sex with only 10 people in one night would be considered a low bar. I don't know of any other area of life where there can be such completely different worldviews.

@SteveSokolowski I’m sorry, you find this harder to believe than you do the existence of “living organisms” made from plasma in the upper atmosphere?

@benshindel This statement is false in multiple ways and should be disregarded.

First, I didn't state that I "believed in the existence of living organisms made from plasma." The closest I ever came to that statement, perhaps, was posting a link to a paper, where I stated that the paper could explain some of the UFO claims.

Second, I never stated I don't "believe" that it's possible to have sex with so many people in one night. I stated that it's amazing that people can live such different lives.

I choose my specific words carefully, because words matter. Stop lying.

bought Ṁ10 of 26-30 YES

@SteveSokolowski Cope and seethe

@benshindel For someone who seems to care so much about the specific meaning of words, you sure projected a lot of meaning onto my reply!! Maybe go re-read it.

@benshindel Ben, I think coming into unrelated markets to make fun of people for their UFO beliefs is not particularly polite or productive.

@IsaacKing I don’t think it’s sustainable for this platform to allow a single conspiracy theorist to derail discussion in tons of unrelated markets (see basically every large monthly / prop bet market).

@benshindel If you see comments you believe are inappropriate, report them to the mods. Don't make your own inappropriate comments in retaliation.

@IsaacKing The block feature exists on this website for a reason. If Steve is unhappy with the way I engage with him, he is welcome to block me.

@IsaacKing I don't think my original comment was inappropriate. I've copied the text of it below for your judgment as moderator:

"I’m sorry, you find this harder to believe than you do the existence of “living organisms” made from plasma in the upper atmosphere?"

@IsaacKing I just want to point out here that I don't believe @benshindel should be penalized for criticism of me itself. I can accept criticism.

What I do believe is that Ben's original statement was false, and false statements should incur a heavy penalty on Manifold. It's not OK to "stretch the truth" or be "almost true"; prediction markets rely upon exact truth. The moderators should use penalties to encourage people to use precise language when criticizing others.

@IsaacKing Shut up Isaac. Ffs

@SteveSokolowski should elon musk penalize Twitter users for spreading false claims about Punxatawney?

@Gritty Regardless of the difference of beliefs between @SteveSokolowski and @benshindel, I think there is only one logical conclusion: @IsaacKing should definitely SHUT THE FUCK UP and you better BELIEVE dat.

@eaglescout I disagree