This is conditional on me actually publishing the book. If I do publish it, how many copies do you predict I'll end up selling in the first six months? Includes audiobook and kindle or whatever. Doesn't include copies I give away for free.
I currently have around 30,000 free subscribers on my substack.
1,000Hot Sex all night, all nice
Hot Sex all night, all nice
Hot Sex all night, all nice
All night, all night, alright
@JacksonWraight Though no valcanos yet. The release date isn’t ready until all datasets are tuned to the annoying perfect taste 👅
@Aella For me it captures all the worlds in which the book goes totally viral and sells well. It's a controversial topic, it could be a book that really takes off.
@Aella Some of it is just encouragement, there are a LOT of possibilities here. I'd say your "built-in" audience is going to be somewhere between your number of paid subscribers and your number of free subscribers (who might not want to pay, but are obviously interested).
I don't know the price of the book, but I've read some of the sections you posted and it seemed interesting....so if it is reasonable, I'd buy myself. And if it catches people's interest, numbers might be much higher.
So might as well bet high. But without betting a lot :-)
I are that topic and existing followers could lead to very high sales. I think the limiting factor might be how many people feel comfortable buying it. Even digital copies go frequently into a shared Kindle account which might lead to hesitation because who knows what the spouse thinks when they see it ("I'm happy with our sex life. Who are you reading this fire?!"). Warranted or not, this topic many people build up crazy scenarios in their heads and this topic will trigger that.
That actually brings me to a question: Through what channels will the book be sold? Can one just buy a PDF from the book website?
BOE Calcs
192.6k Followers on twitter.
96.3k after removing 50% which are probably bots / inactive.
1% - 2% conversion rate gives a range of 963 - 1926.
I'm not feeling good about people buying 'books' in general these days, so I'll take the lowest option that overlaps with this range (500 - 1000)
(Either way best of luck with your book.)
@JackMcPherson I do have ~350k followers on reddit, ~260k on fetlife, ~170k on tiktok, ~50k on instagram, and ~120k or so on my nsfw twitter account. I think these are 'worth less' to me in terms of conversion tho
@Aella I’d guess that the Fetlife followers would have a higher conversion rate.
To me, it also depends how you market it: it’s a very unique book, with both good research and personal experience behind it, so if you do like rounds of TV/radio/podcast interviews, it could blow up beyond your followers.
I'm not feeling good about people buying 'books' in general these days
This is pretty much the entire heuristic I'm using, 50,000 in six months is approximately NYT best-seller level and I don't any particular reason this should be too far out of normal book sales ranges. Although, if you believe a lot of book sales are for signalling reasons, maybe "Good At Sex" is an especially good purchase.
@Aella depending on your views/goals I think the resolution may be wildly different depending on which option you go with. there are downsides to traditional publishing but the obvious upside is they have a network to connect you with and sell your book through. the tradeoff is that you'd likely sell more copies but may make less money and I'm not certain how many of the benefits you could offset by just having a great marketing team if you self publish. self publishing makes it easier to get the book actually published with more freedom but after that it's a ton of work - you have to do a lot of other legwork yourself/via a team you hire.
anyway all things you're already considering I'm sure but all relevant to the predictions?